Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris will likely struggle behind his offensive line and may not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB21. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. most overrated running backs of all time. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. McKissic. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. Curtis Martin 11. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Running back Chris Wells of the Arizona Cardinals was a first-round draft pick, 31st overall, in 2009 who always seemed to be on the injured list year after year. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. The next season he hit bottom with a knee injury that damaged his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. He's never carried the ball more than 132 times in a season. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. David Montgomery looked the part of a workhorse profile after Cohen left the lineup, and Khalil Herbert is a rookie to watch for upward mobility on the depth chart. He also is a touchdown liability -- he's scored 5, 6, and 4 touchdowns in three of his four seasons (11 the other season), which had led to finishing outside the Top 25 each of those years. As a rookie, Montgomery was a disappointment, averaging just 10.7 fantasy points per game. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. 1 cornerstone. Johnson is the incumbent with the largest contract, and yet he's being downshifted in favor of Mark Ingram II -- who did his best work in Baltimore, where Texans head coach David Culley comes from -- and Phillip Lindsay. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. Wait until next year. He was used more as a receiver than anything. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. Jim Brown 2. Dave Kluge: The 49ers drafted Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell and signed free agent Wayne Gallman. 5. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. Thats the first thing we notice. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Photo: Isaiah J. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Andy Hicks: When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge Mike Davis to start the season. J.D. However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Pat Fitzmaurice: This is the type of player I won't draft at any cost. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. Barkley is a workhorse. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? I'm out. Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. But career stats shouldnt have much emphasis on them for that reason. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. Taylor can be a rock-solid option and still be pecked away with Hines and Mack enough to be more in the RB10-15 range. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. But drafting him as a high-upside No. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Its almost always the other way around for top tier RBs. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB22. Michael Carter, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB36. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Simpson 13. Adrian Peterson 10. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. Even if he receives most of the early-down and passing game work, it still wont be very valuable on a putrid offense. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB19. And ultimately, he was targeted by Miami ahead of an early-round draft pick when he finally hit unrestricted free agency. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. In five games without Mark Ingram II in 2020, Dobbins only out-carried Gus Edwards 13 to 11.6. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. There isnt much to like here. But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Yes, but it doesn't feel like he'll be a top-10 type of running back, even in the Chiefs' potent offense. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. He has lapses in vision and decision-making. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. Brown has always been a strong contributor inside the five-yard line scoring 9 rushing touchdowns in the last two years in that hot zone. Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. Along with McKissic, Gibson will have to contend with Brian Robinson Jr, a rookie from Alabama. Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. That enthusiasm should be tempered because Canada was the offensive coordinator fired by LSU before LSU hired Joe Brady, who oversaw Joe Burrow's historic season. Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. Without the volume, it is going to be difficult to get decent fantasy numbers. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. USA Today named the most overrated player on every NFL team in 2022 and for the Cleveland Browns, Jadeveon Clowney was given this unwanted distinction. If you look at Bettis total career marks, you will see that he is 5th on the all time rushing yards list and 10th in TDs. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. The Eagles consistently added to the depth chart this offseason with Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell added to Boston Scott. He was a liability during pass plays because of his inability to catch passes. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. His value is trending in the wrong direction. Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Cohen is not even a projected injury-away auto-start fantasy option heading into training camp. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. I definitely do not want the most expensive option here (Carter), but Coleman and Johnson are arbitrage plays. As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. I think this is pretty unfair to call him the most overrated. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Here's our list of the greatest 30 running backs in NFL history. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB22 | Consensus Projections RB24. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. . Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. Jacobs is not the alpha; he's one of many in the Vegas backfield. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? Pat Fitzmaurice: First, a hat tip: For a guy who was a nonfactor in Purdue's offense for four years and was mostly a special-teamer in his first four NFL seasons, Mostert turned out to be a pretty good running back. 21 RB Sleepers. With the second-year back getting selected in the early second round of most drafts, fantasy managers must be expecting that trend to continue in 2021. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. We've seen J.D. 15 receptions, 111 yards, less than a TD per year. Nobody should ever try to run like Barry Sanders, because they will never be Barry Sanders. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB13. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. Ben Cummins: The Raiders offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. The team added Brian Robinson Jr Jr. on day two of the draft while retaining J.D. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Its a knock on his offensive line. Walter Payton 5. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his climbing ADP. The Giants offensive line, playcalling, and quarterback play give us no faith that they can help create fantasy overachievers. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered A new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh also adds uncertainty to the situation. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. I'll pass on Barkley at cost. Jeff Haseley: Chase Edmonds scored in five different games in 2020, exceeding eight carries in a game only twice in 15 qualifying games. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17. So what's the concern? Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. 5 / 30. While he can certainly put up some strong fantasy weeks, the savvier move would be to wait for the younger backs later in the draft. There's zero appeal here. Jones was the better, more efficient runner during the 2020 regular season, and Bernard seems destined to be Tampa's primary passing-down back. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Draft capital is not a predictor of talent as much as a predictor of opportunity. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. Phil Alexander: The epic stretch-run that led Montgomery to an RB4 finish in 2020 came with Tarik Cohen sidelined and against the defenses of Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, respectively. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB18. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders to be an every-down back. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history.
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